Key Insights :
- The already launched SOL ETFs have performed relatively average, potentially due to the ongoing correction that could be about to end.
- The likelihood of Solana ETF approval before July 31 dropped by 16% to arrive at a 33% probability.
- The approval likelihood of a SOL ETF before December 31 was 70%, a 4% decrease.
The probability of a Solana (SOL) ETF in the U.S. by the end of the year continued to deteriorate despite positives from the new administration.
Performance of Approved SOL ETFs
The Securities and Exchange Commission of Brazil in August 2024 approved the world’s first spot SOL ETF managed by QR Asset Management. It began trading on B3, offering direct SOL exposure.
The ETF’s performance as of April 2025 had followed Solana’s volatility. Analyst noted its 90-day launch calendar, pointing to strong regional demand.
At launch, this ETF grew steadily even though staking was not covered, limiting yield potential.
Again, Canada’s First Spot Solana ETFs with Staking: 3iQ, Purpose, Evolve, and CI listed Canada’s first spot SOL ETFs. The ETFs offer 6-8% staking yields, crossing the CAD $90 Million milestone in assets.
This way, ARK Invest, under the helm of Cathie Wood, also made the first direct investment in SOL ETF by acquiring 500,000 shares of SOLQ for its funds, valued at a whopping $5.2 Million.
SOLQ was thriving, thanks to staking rewards and a 0% management fee for the first year, despite the risks associated with SOL’s price fluctuations.
However, as of April 2025, the U.S. SEC hadn’t approved any spot SOL ETFs, although Grayscale and VanEck had applications still in the pipeline.
While futures-based SOL ETFs made their debut in March 2025, spot ETFs were still waiting for approval.
Investors were excited, but regulatory delays were still a reality. Plus, futures ETFs were struggling with below-average volumes, indicating that investors were being cautious amid all this regulatory uncertainty.
Can SOL ETF Launch in 2025 in the U.S.?
Looking at the likelihood of a SOL ETF approval before July 31 dropped by 10% to arrive at a 33% probability this week.
The data indicated that approval expectations grew to more than 70% during mid-December 2024 before declining through all of Q1 2025.
The primary reasons for this delay stemmed from broader regulatory uncertainty at the SEC.
Former SEC Chair, Gary Gensler, declared most altcoins, including Solana, as securities despite Ethereum Spot ETF approvals, which temporarily boosted altcoin ETF prospects.
Approval by the SEC of ETFs became increasingly problematic as altcoins were viewed as securities, as laws were unclear on such matters.
Lack of legislative action to move forward with comprehensive crypto regulation legislation bills decreased the chances of near-term developments.
Regulatory advancements with corresponding substantive legislative advancements could most certainly revive the prospect of approval for SOL ETFs.
However, current sentiment pointed negatively. SOL enthusiasts in the U.S. faced institutional barriers from the delayed ETF release, yet the future approval seemed likely to generate substantial market benefits.
Moreover, the approval likelihood of a SOL ETF before December 31, 2025, was at 70% while showing a consistent decrease.
Throughout most of 2025, the data pointed to a consistent 70%-90% probability level in the market.
The prospect of approval benefited from two major developments: growing cryptocurrency regulations. Demanded by both parties in Congress and the successful Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF launches.
Solana’s ongoing involvement with SEC enforcement actions against major exchanges through Coinbase. And Binance created obstacles for its classification as an approved investment asset.
The Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21). Could gain congressional approval through Q4 2025, which would provide clarity.
A regulatory approval would help U.S. investors by facilitating easier institution-level investments through ETFs while simplifying direct ownership of SOL.
Any postponement of regulations or additional checks would likely result in decreased market expectations.