Key Insights:
- SEC Governor has delayed the decision for the Grayscale Spot Solana ETF.
- The decision made the odds of approval by July 31 drop to 33% while that of December 31 dropped to only 82%.
- SOL ran in a strong weekly recovery, moving above $176.66 and taking back the Ichimoku cloud.
The potential for approval of a U.S. Solana ETF by mid-year continued to drop sharply as the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) announced another delay in the decision.
SEC Delays Solana ETF Decision
According to the filing dated May 13, 2025, and the document in the latest announcement of the SEC’s decision to delay the Grayscale Spot Solana ETF.
In accordance with the order, the SEC relied on Section 19(b)(2) of the Securities Exchange Act in order to specify a more prolonged review period.
This could provide additional time for action to approve, disapprove, or initiate proceedings with respect to the foregoing proposed rule change to list and trade shares of the Grayscale Solana Trust under the NYSE Arca Rule 8.201-E.
The procedural delay raised questions about the future of the other pending Solana-based ETF registrations and Grayscale’s proposal.
This move followed a common pattern from the SEC, such as with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, where delays ended up with a subsequent approval or rejection.
The market participants had to play a waiting game. The move may affect the overall sentiments on Solana in the institution and spill over to derivative investment products.
Although not a denial, the extension was a sign of the SEC’s conservative attitude towards the subject, which could be a continuation of the watchful eye on crypto assets as commodities.
That was something that investors, especially the growing DeFi and NFT activity on Solana, would be closely watching for the fallout and whatever spillover into the ETF space and altcoin-based trusts.
Odds of Solana ETF Approval Drop
Polymarket revealed the change in sentiment after the SEC’s delay with the decision. Market odds for approval by July 31 plunged to 33%, which was a 16% drop.
From the chart, there were spurts of optimism in between mid-January and February, but confidence started forgone from February.
The SEC’s decision to extend the review time generated skepticism regarding the possibility of seeing the approval in the near term.
The market participants reflected it with the continuous bearish tone in the expectations for the July product.
At the same time, the approval odds by the end of December 31 were still better at 82%, but this number had also decreased slightly after the delay.
This showed an overall optimism remaining rather steady in the whole year of 2025, apart from an episode of volatility in early May that pushed odds to 90%.
Till press time, traders were still holding onto the hope that regulatory clarity may come before the end of the year, and this would allow Solana ETF hopefuls to regroup.
However, bristling confidence denoted that the market says that regulatory caution was a brutal barrier.
These odds represented existing beliefs, not SEC signals, and an indication of exacerbating disconnect between short- and long-term ETF expectations.
What the Weekly SOL Chart Says
Meanwhile, Solana price ran in a strong weekly recovery, moving above $176.66 and taking back the green Ichimoku cloud.
Should SOL break the Kijun resistance at $195, then the momentum could propel it in the direction of $250, equaling past peaks.
However, a defeat at $195 may provoke rejection in the direction of the Tenkan line at $150. The level Kijun implied magnetic pull, and $195 was an important turn.
The bullish cross between the Tenkan and price above the cloud suggested possibilities of a trend reversal. However, the red cloud ahead indicated an ambiguity after July.